Trump to win elections at 93% probability; ICONIC’s new Google Trends data model suggests
NEW YORK, Oct. 13, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — ICONIC, the online jewelry retailer, has released some surprising predictions for the remainder of 2020, by using a prediction model that the company employs for forecasting jewelry trends.
The model, originally developed in mid-2018 and updated 17 times since, uses Google search data as a predictor of interest for carefully chosen search terms, and uses a comparison mechanism to establish benchmarks and predictions.
Capturing customer interest through the model has allowed ICONIC to gain insight into what jewelry designs are becoming popular.
The model currently predicts the following:
– Donald J. Trump will win the 2020 presidential election.
– A marriage proposal surge will be witnessed during November & December, following a historic slump in March.
– Online Christmas purchases will surge by 61%.
– The average purchase value for a Christmas gift in 2020 could sink by as much as 24%.
– Money spent on Christmas food and ornaments will decrease by 11%
For the election prediction, ICONIC collected and analyzed election search data from before and after Trump contracted COVID-19, as well as before and after the first presidential debate. The chosen search terms have been back-tested on the last three presidential elections as well as on eight different European and Australian elections.
ICONIC purports that using Google data enables the model to bypass flaws that are inherent in traditional polls and surveys. Typical flaws include non-response bias, voter shyness, and difficulties in identifying the correct voter proportions, where small variances can produce significant differences in the election predictions.
The slump in Marriage proposals has been comparatively simpler to capture and has been validated by a wide variety of related search terms. Christmas season shopping is expected to be influenced by the growth in online sales, but with some interesting twists.
Founder of ICONIC, Ami Mandel, said “We believe that sharing predictions using Google data could bring interest and help to popularize the approach of using simple tools to predict consumer trends to the benefit of small businesses, as well as all who are preparing for the holiday season.”
Founded with less than $2,000 in late 2017, ICONIC is an online carbon-neutral fine jewelry retailer dedicated to minimizing environmental damage caused by jewelry production.
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